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CPI, FOMC and other scheduled events: trading around known volatility

Why scheduled data releases are the worst time to hold leverage, a simple timing rule, and the crypto-specific events that belong on your calendar.

What a scheduled release does

Inflation prints, rate decisions, and jobs reports move Bitcoin one to three percent in minutes, in either direction, while spreads widen and liquidity thins. A leveraged position through that window is a coin flip at bad odds: the move is large, the direction is unknown, and your stop will be filled far from where you placed it.

A timing rule

Flatten or cut size sharply thirty minutes before a major release. Wait fifteen minutes after it for spreads to normalize and the first reaction to show its hand. Then trade the post-event structure if your plan allows it. The best trade through an event is usually no trade.

Crypto-specific events

Large token unlocks, ETF flow days, exchange maintenance windows, and options expiries. Put them on the same calendar. They are less dramatic than a rate decision but they are known in advance, which means ignoring them is a choice.

Watch it without skin in the game

If you want to learn how an event trades, watch it with a paper position. Seeing a 100x simulated long wiped at 8:30 a.m. Eastern teaches the lesson at zero cost, and you will not need to learn it again with real money.

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